Thursday, January 19, 2012

(1-19-2012) Who Will Win the Australian Open 2012?

The Australian Open has always been historic in setting the tone of the year. It gives the fans and the players an idea of who's rising, falling, and staying the same. An example came from last year, where Djokovic made a surprising sweep of the Slam, handily defeating Roger Federer and Andy Murray in all but 3 sets. But the year is now 2012, not 2011. And with Murray's new coach, Nadal's new racket, and Federer's even hungrier appetite for a slam, Djokovic will be looking down his back quite often as he makes his way through to the draw. Here's a quick analysis of the top 4's chances, along with a couple of dark horses


Roger Federer (ATP Ranking #3)
With the media not focused on Federer as much, Roger has become an odd thing now. A person who ISN'T the center of attention. This works for Federer very much, as the less media he has to worry about, the more he can focus on his game. With an easy 1st round victory, and a 2nd round walkover, Federer's health couldn't look better. Those back spasms are a thing of the past, and he looks like in sublime form to take the championship. After a good showing last year from the US Open to the ATP World Tour Finals, I feel as though Roger will make his move here, when he is the healthiest and his contemporaries are not in their groove yet. Expect him to make a great showing and surprise most of his critics. His form at the US Open clearly shows that he has everything it takes to make the final, but luck wasn't on his side during the semifinal. Expect a 4-set win over Nadal in the Semifinals, as Nadal's new aggressive play will simply help Federer, who usually loses his matches against Nadal because he is in the driver's seat all the time.
Prediction : Champion

 Novak Djokovic (ATP Ranking #1)
What need be said about Novak. He had a simply amazing year and has become the most dominant player right now. He has all the weapons needed to take out any opponent on any given day. His form early on has looked promising, so I don't expect him to get upset very early. In his most probable semifinal match-up against Murray, he faces great opposition. Everyone underestimates the scot, but he has the game to take it to Djokovic. Its very hard to pick a winner here, but I'm just going to go with Djokovic due to his sheer mental strength and past record. However, I think Federer has shown that he can defeat Djokovic and I expect him to face a slightly harder draw than Federer
Prediction : Runner-Up

 Rafael Nadal (ATP Ranking #2)
The great fighter. The Spanish Bull. The one and only Nadal. His early performance has put critic's concerns over his health to silence with a stellar performance in his 2nd round match. However with lots of new variables, like his new racket and play style, I expect it to cost him in very tight matches in which familiarity usually results in the win, rather than attempting to conform yourself to new thoughts and equipment while facing a break point. Against Roger Federer in the semis, I expect him to fall short of expectations and lose a tight 4 setter, but I could easily be wrong.
Prediction: Semifinalist


Andy Murray (ATP Ranking #4)
The Scot has been all over the media because of his new coach, Ivan Lendl. I don't really think that he will reap the benefits until later in the year, as it is way too soon for any of Lendl's techniques and mental thinking to become second nature to the Scot. Dropping a set in his opening match, he has looked good but a little shaky at times. However, if he can make it to the semis, I expect an epic clash against Djokovic, as his play style fairs well against the Serbian's.

Prediction: Semifinalist

 Dark Horse Pick : Juan Martin Del Potro
If anyone is going to upset anyone at this tournament, it can be none other than the great big man himself. Towering over his opponents, Delpo made a good resurgence last year, rising back into the top 20 and showing flashes of brilliance. His match against Nadal at Wimbledon was a very tight 4-setter, which could have gone in his favor in fact. However it is still unknown when he will make his super return to the top, making it hard to predict where he will land.
Prediction : 4th Round - Champion


Honorable Mention : Tsonga


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